That depends on a lot of things. They are currently licensed up on the federal and state level, so they have that much covered: http://www.fincen.gov/financial_institutions/msb/msbstatesel...

If they defrauded their customers, were subject to a serious heist or were blatantly ignoring the four pillars of a good compliance program they will be shut down. None of those are things we can easily predict however.

False. Coinbase does not have any state licenses. It hasn't even applied in California.

http://www.dbo.ca.gov/Licensees/money_transmitters/money_tra...

http://www.dbo.ca.gov/Publications/summaries/default.asp

Ah yes, my mistake. I had assumed that was the case but I read too far into my FinCEN link.

Coinbase is only licensed as a money transmitter at the federal level. In order to legally provide money transmission services in any state, it must also acquire a license in that state. (Under international and federal legal conventions, digital services performed by software are treated as rendered in the customer's location, so Coinbase would need a money transmitter license in each state in which it wants to do business.)

Coinbase is not licensed anywhere.

It is registered as a Money Services Business with FinCEN, which is a signal that its officers, directors and investors are aware that state licenses are required by law for the business they are in. That's different than having a license, however. In the United States, there's no such thing as a federal money transmission license unfortunately.